Member Blog: A Decade of Data Shows Increasing Support for Cannabis Legalization – CBD Oracle Analysis

CBD Oracle’s combined analysis of 70 polls shows a decade of increasing support for legal cannabis, with 62% of Americans supporting legalization in 2024.  

 How many Americans support legalizing cannabis? You might think this is easy to answer: you find the most recent poll and look up the number. The problem is that each individual poll is only a snapshot, based on a randomly-selected group of respondents and influenced by all manner of random factors. It’s like rolling a loaded die: yes, the number with the weight behind it is more likely to turn up, but you can still get an unexpected result on any given roll.

 The way you tell a die is loaded is by rolling multiple times and looking at the statistics. Likewise, if you want to see what people really think, you need to look at multiple polls and combine the results statistically. 

CBD Oracle has done exactly this with a decade’s worth of poll data on marijuana legalization, and the results show that while the majority of Americans still support legal weed, the number peaked in 2022 and still hasn’t recovered. 

Combining Poll Data: CBD Oracle’s Monte Carlo Analysis

CBD Oracle first collected every poll taken from 2015 through to July 2024 that asked a nationally-representative sample of American adults whether they support legalizing cannabis. 

As well as national polls, CBD Oracle also looked for polls from Florida and South Dakota, where upcoming ballot initiatives will give voters the option of legalizing cannabis in-state. This resulted in 70 polls for the analysis in total.

The polls were combined using Monte Carlo simulations, which is a common approach to combining political polls. This basically uses the mean and margin of error from each poll to generate multiple simulated “results,” which represent the distribution of results you’d expect if you repeated each poll multiple times. These results were then pooled together, in six-month blocks, to find an overall average for the half-year which accounts for both between-poll and within-poll variability.

You can read more about the methodology in CBD Oracle’s PDF summary of the results.

The Results: 62% Support Legalizing Cannabis in 2024

The decade of national data analyzed by CBD Oracle shows a clear increase in support for cannabis legalization. 

In 2015, 53% of US adults support legalization, but this quickly increased, breaking past three-fifths support in the second half of 2017 (62% support) and reaching a peak of 71% support in the first half of 2022. While support declined slightly after this high-point, it still stood at 62% in the first half of 2024. 

Firstly, this is a robust demonstration of something we’ve known for some time: the majority of Americans support legalizing cannabis. However, it also suggests that there may be a decline in support in the past couple of years, with early 2022 showing substantially higher support than 2023 or 2024. This was likely influenced by an SICPA/Harris Poll which found support at 78%, and clearly shows the danger in cherry-picking favorable results when looking for the answer to questions like this.

In the overall context of the results, the apparent decline in recent years doesn’t look so concerning. Prior to this, support was at 63%, and it had declined by to this point again by 2023, but the overall trend over the decade is of increasing support. In addition, the number opposed to legalization remains very low even in 2024, with only 26% against the idea, leaving 12% undecided.

Democrats, Independents and Younger Adults Are More Likely to Support Legal Weed

CBD Oracle also looked at how the results varied based on demographic and other subgroups. While most of these analyses showed no difference, two are worth mentioning. 

Perhaps expectedly, political affiliation was a big factor in support for legal cannabis. Based on polls conducted in 2024, 71% of democrats favor legalization, compared to 64% of independents and 48% of republicans. Although republicans are predictably the least supportive, it’s notable that the split is close to 50-50, and it’s possible there will be majority support among republicans in the next few years.

The other major difference was with age. Two-thirds (66%) of adults aged under 45 supported legalization, compared to 60% support among those aged over 45. Here, it’s important to note that both groups supported legalization overall. 

Will Florida and South Dakota’s Upcoming Ballot Initiatives Pass?

While there are also relevant ballot initiatives in Nebraska and North Dakota, the two states with upcoming votes and enough polls to analyze were Florida and South Dakota.

For Florida, polls conducted in 2023 showed around 66% of voters in favor of legalization, but the overall result for 2024 declined to 57%. This is concerning for advocates in the state, since the initiative needs 60% support to pass, but there is good news hiding in the details. The two polls conducted in June 2024 found 66 and 64% support, and with a few months of campaigning left, it’s likely that the initiative will pass and Florida will legalize weed.

For South Dakota, the news is less positive. Two polls from 2023 analyzed via Monte Carlo showed 47% support, and the only poll conducted in 2024 put support at just 41.6%. Unfortunately, unless there is a drastic change in the coming months, South Dakotans will have to wait longer to get legal cannabis.

Conclusion: Support for Legal Cannabis Remains High, Despite Recent Declines

CBD Oracle’s analysis shows that support for legal cannabis remains high among Americans, and casts doubt on the relevance of recent declines in support. With a consistent trend towards increasing support and opposition to marijuana legalization remaining low, the data shows that the new “norm” is over three-fifths of Americans supporting legal weed. Individual polls may buck this trend, combining the polling helps you see the overall picture without being misled by individual results. 

The tide has already turned; support for legal cannabis is here to stay.

You can access the full report here (PDF).