Poll Shows That Swing State Voters Support Marijuana Legalization, Highlighting Opportunity For Presidential Campaigns

A new public opinion survey in the key presidential election swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin shows that voters strongly support marijuana reform, with 84 percent of respondents in favor of medical cannabis and 62 percent backing broader adult-use legalization.

The poll, released over the weekend by Ragnar Research, also found nearly 2 in 3 Florida voters (65 percent) support an adult-use legalization measure on that state’s November ballot. Former President Donald Trump (R) recently came out in support of the proposal, prompting Vice President Kamala Harris (D) to accuse him of a “blatant flip flop” on cannabis policy.

Pollsters conclude in the new report that likely voters in swing states “are overwhelmingly in support of responsible modernization of American marijuana policy,” seeing reform as a way to expand healthcare options and cut off funding to international drug cartels.

“There is a real desire in the swing states for clear laws, fair laws that mitigate overcriminalization, and responsible laws legalizing marijuana for anyone 21 years or older,” the report says. “It remains to be seen which campaign will capitalize on this opportunity first. Voters want responsible legalization, where the laws of the country match the realities in their communities.”

The survey asked 1,000 voters in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan about marijuana and other matters and also polled a separate sample of 200 Floridians.

Ragnar Research Partners

Among the survey’s other findings, it noted that every surveyed group in every surveyed region “is in favor of legalizing medial marijuana by at least 75%.”

As for adult-use legalization, the only groups where majorities or pluralities opposed the reform were women 65 and older (53 percent), Republicans (47 percent) and conservatives (46 percent).

“Swing-state voters strongly support smart policy for this emerging Agriculture industry which strengthens the economy for all Americans and reduces healthcare costs with affordable alternatives,” the survey says. “At the same time, voters want clear laws prohibiting its use by children under 21.”

Ragnar Research Partners

Separately, a sample of 200 likely voters in Florida showed 65 percent support for an adult-use legalization measure on the ballot in that state, including majority support among Republicans, independents and Democrats. The amendment requires 60 percent support at the polls to become law.

Specifically, 44 percent of respondents said they “strongly support” the proposal, and 21 percent said they “not-so-strongly support” it. Another 10 percent of voters said they’re undecided on the measure, while 25 percent are opposed.

Ragnar Research Partners

A separate poll last month from the firm Public Policy Polling (PPP) found that 57 percent of registered voters were in favor of the proposal, while 34 percent were opposed. But support may be growing: One of the latest surveys, from the James Madison Institute (JMI), shows 64 percent of likely voters in Florida in favor of the legalization proposal, compared to 27 percent who are opposed and 9 percent who are undecided.

As for the three presidential swing states, an earlier series of polls last month showed widespread majority support for marijuana legalization, cannabis federal rescheduling and cannabis industry banking access.

Those surveys—conducted by The Tarrance Group and commissioned by The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company—asked respondents about four marijuana-related issues. Voters were prompted with questions about their views on medical cannabis legalization, adult-use legalization, marijuana banking reform and the federal scheduling status of cannabis.

In each of the swing states where voters were polled, there was majority support for all of the proposed reforms, albeit at slightly differing levels.

“Candidates who favor common sense marijuana laws and rules have a real advantage in battleground states and can make inroads with key voting blocs that are expected to play a critical role in deciding the presidency and control of Congress,” Brian Herrington, vice president of external affairs for The Scotts Miracle-Gro Company, said in a press release at the time.

While marijuana politics have so far played a peripheral role in barbs being traded between Harris and Trump, the Harris campaign recently called out the former president for what it called “brazen flip flops” on cannabis policy.

The attack, in a memo from a senior Harris campaign spokesperson, followed Trump’s recent announcement of support for the Florida marijuana ballot measure.

“Trump now suggests he is for legalizing marijuana – but as President, his own Justice Department cracked down on marijuana offenses,” the memo said. “Trump’s Administration took marijuana reform backwards, withdrawing guidelines to limit prosecutions of marijuana offenses that were legal under state laws. Trump even proposed removing medical marijuana protections.”

Notably, while memo drew on Trump’s inconsistency on cannabis policy and messaging, it did not lay out the Harris campaign’s own vision on the subject. Nor did it acknowledge the Biden administration’s mixed record on reform.

While Harris has advocated for cannabis legalization, President Joe Biden has maintained opposition to that broader reform despite the fact that the vast majority of voters in his party support it.

Critics, including Trump, have been quick to point to Harris’s prosecutorial record on marijuana, but she also sponsored a comprehensive legalization bill in the Senate and called for legalization as recently as March during a closed-door meeting with cannabis pardon recipients.

Harris also selected Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz (D) as her running mate, choosing a politician who backed numerous cannabis reform measures in Congress, called for an end to prohibition when he was running for governor and then signed a comprehensive legalization bill into law in 2023.

Trump, for his part, later criticized Sessions’s decision to rescind the Cole memo and suggested the move should be reversed, though in office he also failed to take meaningful action to further marijuana reform.

On several occasions, he released signing statements on spending legislation stipulating that he reserved the right to ignore a long-standing budget rider that prohibits the Justice Department from using its funds to interfere with state-legal medical marijuana programs.

Trump did at one point, however, tentatively endorse a bipartisan bill to codify federal policy respecting states’ rights to legalize.

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