Florida Marijuana Legalization Ballot Initiative Has Enough Support To Pass, New Poll Finds As Trump Backs Reform

A new poll signals that a Florida marijuana legalization initiative that’ll be on the November ballot has enough support to pass, exceeding the steep 60 percent threshold to enact a constitutional amendment under state law.

The Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey found that 63.6 percent of likely voters in Florida back the cannabis measure, while 27.2 percent are opposed and 9.2 percent remain undecided.

That includes 81 percent of Democrats, 62 percent of independents and 51 percent of Republicans—the latest signal that cannabis legalization enjoys bipartisan support in the Sunshine State.

That’s positive news for the Smart & Safe Florida campaign behind Amendment 3. While polling has consistently shown majority support for the initiative, several recent surveys have shown it falling short of the 60 percent requirement.

This latest poll involved interviews with 815 likely voters in Florida from September 3-5, with a +/-3.4 percentage point margin of error.

It comes on the heels of former President Donald Trump, the 2024 Republican nominee and a Florida resident, voicing support for the measure, as well as federal rescheduling and cannabis industry banking access.

“As I have previously stated, I believe it is time to end needless arrests and incarcerations of adults for small amounts of marijuana for personal use,” Trump said on Sunday. “We must also implement smart regulations, while providing access for adults, to safe, tested product. As a Floridian, I will be voting YES on Amendment 3 this November.”

Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), meanwhile, has continued to beat the drum in opposition to Amendment 3.

Last week, the governor responded to a tweet from Florida Sen. Jonathan Martin (R), who voiced concerns about the initiative language, arguing that it would only allow for restrictions on public smoking of medical, versus recreational, marijuana.

“Sen. Martin is correct. His observation is clear in the text of the actual amendment (which is not included on the ballot and which 99% of voters will never read),” DeSantis said. “Florida’s constitution, if amendment 3 passes, will provide for regulating the use of *medical* marijuana in public, but not *recreational* marijuana.”

Trump similarly talked about his own concerns with public cannabis consumption, though he predicted the measure would pass, saying, “Whether people like it or not, this will happen through the approval of the Voters, so it should be done correctly.”

“We need the State Legislature to responsibly create laws that prohibit the use of it in public spaces, so we do not smell marijuana everywhere we go, like we do in many of the Democrat run Cities,” he added. “At the same time, someone should not be a criminal in Florida, when this is legal in so many other States. We do not need to ruin lives & waste Taxpayer Dollars arresting adults with personal amounts of it on them, and no one should grieve a loved one because they died from fentanyl laced marijuana.”

The campaign Smart & Safe Florida has strongly contested claims that the proposed policy change would tie the hands of lawmakers to set regulations for adult-use cannabis, including public consumption restrictions.

Trump’s recent comments on the issue followed meetings with a GOP Florida senator and the CEO of the primary financial backer of the initiative, Trulieve’s Kim Rivers, Marijuana Moment learned.

Last week, Trump said medical marijuana has been “absolutely amazing” for patients, and that the Florida legalization initiative is “going to be very good” for the state after it passes, which he expects to happen.

“You take a look at the numbers, it’s been very hard to beat it,” Trump said, referencing polling for marijuana legalization ballot measures. “So I think it’ll generally pass, but you want to do it in a safe way.”

Separately, longtime ally and GOP political operative Roger Stone, who is also a Florida resident and supports the legalization proposal, separately told Marijuana Moment that if Trump did ultimately endorse the measure it would “guarantee victory.”

Meanwhile, following Trump’s recent announcement of support for the cannabis legalization ballot measure in Florida, the campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee, started working to remind voters that while in office, Trump “took marijuana reform backwards.”

In a memo from a senior campaign spokesperson, the Harris campaign accused Trump of “brazen flip flops” on cannabis. The Democratic campaign says it’s one of the Republican former president’s “several bewildering ‘policy proposals’ that deserve real scrutiny.”

Rep. Nancy Mace (R-SC), who is sponsoring a bill to federally legalize marijuana called the States Reform Act, separately said that while she hopes Trump will back the Biden administration’s rescheduling move, she also said part of the reason Republicans in Congress have declined to embrace marijuana policy change is because they’re “afraid of it.”

Trump also recently went after Harris over her prosecutorial record on marijuana, claiming that she put “thousands and thousands of Black people in jail” for cannabis offenses—but the full record of her time in office is more nuanced.

Trump’s line of attack, while misleading, was nonetheless notable in the sense that the GOP presidential nominee implied that he disagrees with criminalizing people over marijuana and is moving to leverage the idea that Harris played a role in racially disproportionate mass incarceration.

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Meanwhile, a Democratic congresswoman who recently said she was on the fence about whether she’d vote for the Florida legalization ballot initiative this November has officially given the measure her endorsement.

There’s been a mixed bag of feedback on Amendment 3 from members of Florida’s congressional delegation.

One pro-legalization GOP congressman, Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), recently said he intends to vote against it, strictly because he feels the reform should be enacted statutorily, rather than as a constitutional amendment that would prove more challenging to amend.

On the other hand, Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), co-chair of the Congressional Cannabis Caucus, predicted earlier this year that the measure will pass.

Separately, another recent survey from the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which is against the cannabis initiative, found that 59 percent of likely voters in the state back Amendment 3.

A separate poll from the James Madison Institute (JMI) that was released late last month showed 64 percent of likely voters in Florida are in favor of the legalization proposal.

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Photo courtesy of Philip Steffan.