Majority Of Florida Voters Back Marijuana Legalization Ballot Initiative, Two New Polls Show, But Chances Of Passage Remain Uncertain

What are the chances that Florida voters approve a marijuana legalization initiative on the ballot next month? According to a pair of new polls, the answer remains unclear—with both showing majority support but only one finding that support reaching the steep 60 percent threshold needed for passage under state law

Floridians have been surveyed on the issue multiple times over recent months. But while Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), other state officials and prohibitionist groups have fought to convince voters to defeat the measure, it’s been made abundantly clear that the majority is in favor of legalization. The latest polls are no different.

An Emerson College Polling/The Hill survey that was released on Wednesday found that support for Amendment 3 is at 60 percent, while 34 percent are opposed and 6 percent remain undecided. The campaign will need at least 60 percent of voters in order for the legalization proposal to be enacted.

Democrats were the most likely to back the reform, at 78 percent. About 66 percent of independents are in favor of the measure. While some past surveys have shown bipartisan consensus on the issue, the Emerson poll found a slim majority of Republicans (51 percent) opposed, compared to 42 percent who support it.

The poll involved interviews with 860 likely voters from October 18-20, with a +/-3.3 percentage point margin of error.

Meanwhile, the Florida Chamber of Commerce, which has publicly opposed the cannabis measure, also came out with its latest poll on the issue this week. It found support for the reform from likely voters at 57 percent—a majority but not quite enough to secure passage.

“The lack of movement in support from Floridians over the past year comes despite $111 million being raised to promote this amendment, over $102 million of which has come from Florida’s largest medicinal marijuana provider,” the group said in a press release. “This failure to build momentum for the amendment in polling displays that the more voters learn about Amendment 3, the less they like what they learn. Passage or failure will come down to turnout.”

The Chamber’s survey involved interviews with 614 respondents from October 10-20 and has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points.

Meanwhile, as DeSantis marches forward in his campaign to oppose the marijuana legalization ballot initiative, the state Department of Health and surgeon general are promoting new warnings about the potential impact of cannabis on youth.

DeSantis has faced allegations of weaponizing state departments to push anti-legalization narratives through various PSAs in recent weeks—prompting one Democratic state senator to sue over what he claimed was an unconstitutional appropriation of tax dollars. A Florida judge has since dismissed that lawsuit due to what he claimed to be a lack of standing and claim of injury.

But in any case, advocates still got some welcome news this past week from a different survey showing two in three voters plan to support the measure, which the pollster said signals that it’s “on track” to pass.

Advocates are hoping to sustain that momentum, and part of the strategy is to promote the bipartisan support behind legalization.

For example, the campaign behind Amendment 3, Smart & Safe Florida, recently released an ad featuring clips of former President Donald Trump endorsing the cannabis reform proposal—with a call for voters to “join” him in supporting the measure.

The promotion came just weeks after the campaign released another ad highlighting the fact that both major party presidential nominees—Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris—as well as their running mates share at least one thing in common: They don’t believe in criminalizing people over cannabis.

While the focus of the latest ad is on Trump’s endorsement of the Florida legalization proposal, it’s also airing as Harris amplifies her support for federal legalization, with a campaign pledge to end prohibition if she’s elected. She’s framed the reform as a means of helping to address racial disparities in the enforcement of cannabis criminalization.

Meanwhile, the Florida campaign released another ad recently featuring state Sen. Joe Gruters (R), who’s endorsed the initiative. In that ad, the GOP senator and former chair of the Florida Republican Party said he’s “as MAGA as they come,” referencing his support for Trump.

Grunters and Sen. Shevrin Jones (D) also recently teamed up to promote the state marijuana legalization initiative in another campaign ad. The bipartisan senators stood side-by-side, acknowledging that while they “don’t agree on much—hardly anything” and would be each voting for their respective party’s presidential nominee, they “do agree on this: Amendment 3 is good for Florida.”

Meanwhile, a political committee opposing the legalization measure has received a half-million-dollar contribution from an organization that Elon Musk reportedly used to quietly support DeSantis’s before he dropped out of the 2024 presidential race. At the same time, the pro-legalization campaign has officially exceeded $100 million in total contributions.

The main corporate backer of the legalization initiative, Trulieve, has separately filed a defamation suit against the state’s Republican Party, alleging it’s knowingly deceived voters about the proposed constitutional change known as Amendment 3.

Regardless, DeSantis has continued to push a narrative that the legalization proposal is largely designed to benefit Trulieve, and he’s urged cannabis enthusiasts to join him in his opposition to the measure.

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Outside the presidential race, there’s been a mix of support and opposition for the Florida legalization amendment on both sides of the partisan spectrum.

For example, the former head of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) under then-President Bill Clinton recently urged Florida voters to reject the marijuana legalization initiative, arguing that it would create a “new addiction-for-profit industry” in the state.

Nikki Fried, the chair of the Florida Democratic Party and a former state agriculture commissioner, recently endorsed Amendment 3. And the chair also laid out a framework for regulating cannabis that she thinks the legislature should enact if voters do approve the reform. That involves automatic expungements for prior marijuana convictions, taking steps to mitigate the risk of monopolization in the industry and directing tax revenue to Black communities and education.

Meanwhile, two congressional Republicans representing Florida also recently weighed in on the state’s marijuana legalization initiative—with Rep. Laurel Lee (R-FL) predicting it will fail and Rep. Byron Donalds (R-FL) saying he remains undecided on the measure even after former President Donald Trump came out in support of it.

Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-FL), for his part, has said he intends to vote against it, strictly because he feels the reform should be enacted statutorily, rather than as a constitutional amendment that would prove more challenging to amend.

On the other hand, Rep. Brian Mast (R-FL), co-chair of the Congressional Cannabis Caucus, predicted earlier this year that the measure will pass.

While polling has also consistently demonstrated that the ballot measure enjoys majority support from Democrats and Republicans alike—and despite the fact that Trump has endorsed it as well—Florida’s governor has not relented in his crusade to defeat it.

Trulieve CEO Kim Rivers and Gruters, the GOP state senator, also met with Trump ahead of his endorsement of Amendment 3, as well as federal rescheduling and industry banking access.

Meanwhile, a separate poll from the James Madison Institute (JMI) showed 64 percent of likely voters in Florida are in favor of the legalization proposal.

Smart & Safe Florida also rolled out another series of new ads last month—including one calling out the hypocrisy of criminalizing cannabis while alcohol is legally available and another featuring a county sheriff making the case for ending marijuana prohibition.

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