North Dakota Marijuana Legalization Ballot Initiative Leads In New Poll, But Sizable Undecided Vote Keeps It Below A Majority

A marijuana legalization initiative on North Dakota’s November ballot is ahead in a new poll—but without the majority support needed to pass at this point due to a sizable share of voters who remain undecided on the reform.

The survey, conducted by the firm WPA Intelligence, found that a 45 percent plurality back the legalization measure, compared to 40 percent who are opposed and 15 percent who say they don’t know how they will vote.

With just weeks before Election Day, the results signal that the New Economic Frontier campaign behind the initiative still has work to do if they hope to secure a majority of the vote to enact it. Still, the poll is more encouraging for advocates than another survey released in August that found sizable majority opposition to the measure.

The new WPA Intelligence poll, first reported by the North Dakota News Cooperative, involved interviews with 500 North Dakota voters from September 28-30, with a 4.4 percentage point margin of error.

This also comes amid a stepped-up opposition push, with the North Dakota’s Medical Association, Hospital Association, Peace Officers Association, Chiefs of Police Association and Sheriffs and Deputies Association all recently coming out against the measure.

Meanwhile, North Dakota lawmakers have been divided over how to estimate revenue and expenses for the state if voters approve the legalization proposal—but a legislative panel landed on a projection of $10.3 million in revenue for the 2025-2027 biennium if the reform is enacted.

In August, North Dakota Secretary of State Michael Howe (R) certified that organizers behind the legalization initiative had collected enough valid voter signatures to put the measure on November’s ballot.

New Economic Frontier said last month that they submitted more than 22,000 voter signatures. They needed at least 15,582 valid signatures to qualify the proposal and officials ultimately validated 18,964 signatures.

Well folks. We officially have a legit chance to win. It’s the highest marijuana legalization has ever polled in North Dakota. No – 40% Yes – 45% Undecided- 15%. Be the person who votes, even if you haven’t voted before or haven’t voted in years. We need you! #Fargond #bismarck pic.twitter.com/MQWUur1zHn

— Legalize ND 2024 (@LegalizeND2020) October 4, 2024

Under the new legalization measure, adults 21 and older would be able to possess up to one ounce of marijuana flower, four grams of concentrate and 300 milligrams of edibles that they could buy from a limited number of licensed dispensaries. Adults could also grow up to three plants for personal use, with a six-plant cap per household.

The state Department of Health and Human Services or another agency designated by the legislature would be responsible for regulating the program. Regulators would need to establish rules to implement the law by October 1, 2025.

The new proposal would limit regulators to approving licenses for up to seven cannabis manufacturers and 18 retailers. There are also provisions meant to avoid creating intrastate monopolies, such as limiting licensees to no more than four dispensaries.

Currently, there are eight medical cannabis dispensaries operating in North Dakota. The initiative requires regulators to develop separate application processes for those businesses to become dual licensees and non-existing companies that wish to become recreational operators.

Unlike other legal states, the proposal in North Dakota doesn’t appear to contain criminal justice reform components favored by equity advocates such as expungements or licensing prioritization for people harmed by the drug war. It also doesn’t seem to contain any references to a proposed tax scheme for legal sales.

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New Economic Frontier filed its initiative with the state and formally launched the campaign in April.

As for neighboring states, is already legal in Montana and Minnesota, and it will be on the ballot in South Dakota in November.

In 2021, North Dakota’s House approved a marijuana legalization bill sponsored by Rep. Jason Dockter (R), but it was ultimately defeated in the Senate after advancing through committee.

Following that defeat, some senators devised a new plan to advance the issue by referring it to voters on the 2022 ballot. The resolution moved through a key committee in 2021, but the Senate also blocked it.

There have been repeated attempts by activists to enact legalization in the Peace Garden state over the years.

Advocates with the separate group North Dakota Cannabis Caucus started collecting signatures to qualify a constitutional amendment legalizing cannabis for the 2022 ballot, but they did not gather enough by deadline.

New Approach ND previously led an effort to place a legalization measure on the 2018 ballot that was defeated by voters. They filed another initiative for 2020, but signature gathering complications largely caused by the coronavirus pandemic got in the way.

North Dakota voters approved a medical cannabis ballot measure in 2016.

Last year, North Dakota’s governor signed a bill allowing patients admitted to hospice care to self-certify as medical marijuana patients.

The North Dakota House of Representatives also approved a resolution last year that encourages residents to buy U.S. flags that are made out of hemp and manufactured in the state.

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Photo courtesy of Philip Steffan.