New York state is going to legalize marijuana in 2019, but there’s a catch.
At first glance, this is huge news for marijuana investors.
New York is the fourth largest state by population in the country and the state is critical to the growth of the U.S. marijuana industry.
Everything necessary for legalization has fallen into place.
Democrats won the New York Senate for the first time in a decade and the legislature is now firmly in hands of the Democrats.
New Jersey has legalized marijuana and stands to cash in on the tax revenue from New York buyers crossing over the border.
There way more reasons for it to pass than not in New York at this point.
As a result, the Seed Investor expects New York will lift its ban on recreational use marijuana too (New York has already legalized medical marijuana).
There will be a catch though.
When New York’s governor Andrew Cuomo announced the effort to legalize marijuana, he couched it as part of a much bigger idea.
Governor Cuomo said, “We must end the needless and unjust convictions and the debilitating criminal stigma and let’s legalize the adult use of recreational use of marijuana once and for all.”
That’s the catch right there.
It looks like it won’t be a straight up legalization effort.
Instead, it will be a part of a much bigger criminal justice reform package which makes it much more complicated than it already is.
Add in criminal justice reform on top of the issues about taxation, regulation, licensing, and everything else that goes along with it and you’ve got a recipe for long delays.
That’s why we don’t expect it to be quick, but we expect it to get done at some time in 2019.
When it does get close to passing though, the change will be a big one.
The Seed Investor sees three catalysts need to kick start the marijuana bull market.
These catalysts are:
Revised Banking Laws And Regulations: Banking has been one of the biggest hurdles facing the legal marijuana industry in the United States.
Marijuana cultivators and retailers can’t easily access banking services because they are, technically, drug dealers. Banks can’t process proceeds from illegal activities.
Also, many institutional investors have shied away from the U.S. marijuana industry. Regardless of how unlikely it may be to happen, any investment in a U.S. marijuana company is subject to forfeiture.
It’s too great a risk for many large investors and their legal counsel and compliance officers have kept many big investors out of the marijuana industry.
Any change to banking regulations will change all that.
Complete Federal Legalization: This would be the biggest catalyst of all. It would open the floodgates for investors, companies, customers, and probably drive marijuana stocks back to past highs and beyond.
Those are the three big catalysts the Seed Investor is watching in 2019 and beyond.
They will play a big role in getting marijuana stocks back on the rise.
So, although the announcement from the governor of New York is welcome, it is part of a much bigger picture.
Until all these catalysts get close, investors must be more tactical and focus on specific opportunities within the industry to really make money in marijuana stocks in 2019.
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