Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new dispensary approvals and an update for each operator. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the seventh New Cannabis Ventures article in what will likely be monthly updates. We also published a newsletter about the state in May, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided this week by the state. Readers who are interested in the data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Is Slowing

We last updated on the Florida market a month ago, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 4.8% in early September  from 8.4% in late May.  The rate has dropped to a new record low and was 3.9% this past week:

While the number of patients is still increasing, the growth is very low. 886K patients represent 4% of the state’s population. The number of patients has actually slipped recently:

The post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth, and some program improvements have helped excite Florida residents. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 683 from 591 a year ago. This is an increase of 15.6%, which is much faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been.

Unit Growth Remains Strong

We recently shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April by the company’s estimate. This was a record low. BDSA released September data, and Florida’s growth picked up a bit again, up 5.2% from a year earlier. This is still quite slow, especially considering patient growth and dispensary growth.

The increased competition and falling prices combined with slightly increasing sales has suggested that unit growth remains strong. In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC fell 1.1% from a year ago. A month ago, it grew 12.6% from a year ago, so this was a major change. Smokeable flower units expanded 10.7% from the week ending 10/04/23.

Conclusion

We warned readers on May 17th regarding the MSOs that are big in Florida, as investors seemed overly optimistic. The entire cannabis market has pulled back since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower. Three of the four leaders in Florida have declined substantially:

The overall market, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, has declined by 20.6% since then, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index has dropped 27.6%. Three of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of these. One that we think will do very well if Florida legalizes for adult-use is Planet 13 (OTC: PLNH) (CSE: PLTH), which recently reported in August its first quarter that included VidaCann results, Q2. Since that mid-May piece, it has dropped less than all of these, falling 2.5%, which is outpacing the overall cannabis sector.

It’s not clear that Florida voters will approve adult-use legalization in November. If they don’t, the market likely will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and  becoming more competitive. If they do, it’s not yet clear that the four largest operators will win going forward. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We no longer send these by email as we did in the past, but we post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.

Friends,

A year ago, I wrote that the cannabis sector was still in a bear market. Since then, the New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index has increased slightly, rising 1.2% since 10/6. This is less than what cash earned, and it is a lot less than the rally in the S&P 500. Here is what the action has looked like over the past year:

Our caution was right initially, as the index plunged in October. After that early weakness, our outlook picked up, though we remained cautious. It all depended upon rescheduling in our view, and that was not a done deal. In late April, the market peaked at 11.72. This was when the DEA confirmed that it was going to move to reschedule cannabis, which would wipe out the 280E taxation.

On that spike, we pointed out in early May that it was not a good idea to bet big on cannabis stocks yet. Our bullishness in Q4 and our caution in Q2 have played out well. So, what is a cannabis investor supposed to do now?

We have been a lot more bullish on cannabis stocks, but rescheduling is not yet a done deal. The DEA announced in late August that there will be a hearing on December 2nd. The market crumble that took place made little sense, and it has been stabilizing since then.

As I look to 2025, I continue to believe that the elimination of 280E taxation, if it happens as is expected, should be a catalyst for MSOs, but there are other issues weighing on the market. For instance, we will have  new President. It seems clear that Harris is for reform that could improve the industry, and Trump has been speaking favorably. Of course, the control of the House of Representatives and the Senate could change. I don’t view the federal government as likely to have a big impact on cannabis beyond any changes to the Farm Act of 2018.

Cannabis remains a state-by-state market, and I continue to believe that New York will grow very strongly. Perhaps California will resume its growth too. A state that I worry about is Florida, as voters may not provide the 60% yes votes to legalize for adult-use, which would be horrible, as the state’s medical program is seeing patient growth slow and dispensary growth pick up. Not surprisingly, prices have been going down in Florida. I believe that investors (and some analysts) have an overly optimistic view on the outcome for the stocks if it passes.

Issues at the state level are quite important, but another thing that has been weighing on MSOs has been executive turnover. Among the nine Tier 1 and Tier 2 names, Ascend Wellness, AYR Wellness and Curaleaf have made CEO changes recently.

I continue to believe that cannabis investors should seek opportunities across the market and not exclusively in the sub-sector of MSOs. My model portfolio at 420 Investor has an overweight in MSOs (34% weighting), so I am bullish, but I am also very bullish on some ancillary stocks (28% weighting, which is under the index exposure). I believe that the MSOs will see their businesses improve if 280E gets eliminated, and this should result in more purchases of goods and services that ancillary companies provide. I don’t believe that Canadian LPs will benefit at all from rescheduling, but I do like some of them too (37% weighting in two names).

Above I pointed out that the market is marginally higher than it was a year ago, but perhaps the calendar isn’t the right thing to use. Today is the Jewish New Year (Happy Rosh Hashanah!), and measuring from the 11.11 close in the Global Cannabis Stock Index on 9/15/23, the end of the last Jewish year (5784), the index has dropped 23%.  Let’s all hope that the DEA goes forward with rescheduling soon!

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is what we published this past week:

Exclusives

Cannabis Stocks Move Higher in September

To get real-time updates download our free mobile app for Android or Apple devices, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.

Use the suite of professionally managed NCV Cannabis Stock Indices to monitor the performance of publicly-traded cannabis companies within the day or over longer time-frames. In addition to the comprehensive Global Cannabis Stock Index, we offer the Canadian Cannabis LP Index, the American Cannabis Operator Index and the Ancillary Cannabis Index.

View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.

Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.

Discover upcoming new listings with the curated Cannabis Stock IPOs and New Issues Tracker.

Sincerely,

Alan

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new approvals and an update for each dispensary. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the sixth New Cannabis Ventures article in what will likely be monthly updates. We also published a newsletter about the state in May, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided this week by the state. Readers who are interested in the data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Is Slowing

We last updated on the Florida market a month ago, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 5.3% in early August from 8.4% in late May.  The rate is now at a record low of 4.8%:

While the number of patients is still increasing, the growth is very low. 886K patients represent 4% of the state’s population. The post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth, and some program improvements have helped excite Florida residents. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 674 from 589 a year ago. This is an increase of 14.4%, which is much faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been.

Unit Growth Remains Strong

We recently shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April by the company’s estimate. This was a record low. BDSA released August data, and Florida’s growth picked up a bit, just over +4.6% from a year earlier. This is still quite slow.

The increased competition and falling prices combined with slightly increasing sales suggest that unit growth remains strong. In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC grew 12.6% from a year ago, while smokeable flower units expanded 19.0% from the week ending 9/07/23.

Conclusion

We warned readers on May 17th regarding the MSOs that are big in Florida, as investors seemed overly optimistic. The entire cannabis market has pulled back since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower. The four leaders in Florida have declined substantially:

The overall market, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, has declined by 25.3% since then, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index has dropped 31.8%. Three of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of these. One that we think will do very well if Florida legalizes for adult-use is Planet 13 (OTC: PLNH) (CSE: PLTH), which just reported in August its first quarter that included VidaCann results, Q2. Since that mid-May piece, it has dropped less than all of these, falling 5.8%, which is outpacing the overall cannabis sector.

It’s not clear that Florida voters will approve adult-use legalization in November. If they don’t, the market likely will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and  becoming more competitive. If they do, it’s not yet clear that the four largest operators will win going forward. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new approvals and an update for each dispensary. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the fifth New Cannabis Ventures article in what we expect will provide updates every month. We also published a newsletter about the state in May, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided this week by the state. Readers who are interested in the  data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Is Slowing

We last updated on the Florida market a month ago, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 5.8% in early July from 8.4% in late May.  The rate is now at a record low of 5.3%:

While it is still increasing, the growth is very low. 885K patients represents 4% of the state’s population. The post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth, and some program improvements have helped excite Florida residents. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 661 from 586 a year ago. This is an increase of 12.8%, which is faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been.

Unit Growth Remains Strong

We recently shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April by the company’s estimate. This was a record low. BDSA released May and June data, and Florida’s growth picked up a bit, just over +5% from a year earlier for both months. It did pick up in July to 8.3%. Still, this is not really that rapid of growth.

The increased competition and falling prices combined with slightly increasing sales suggest that unit growth remains strong. In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC grew 9.1% from a year ago, while smokeable flower units expanded 13.0% from the week ending 8/10/23.

Conclusion

We warned readers on May 17th regarding the MSOs that are big in Florida. The entire cannabis market has pulled back since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower. The four leaders in Florida have declined substantially:

The overall market, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, has declined by 22.2% since then, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index has dropped 29.2%. Three of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of these. One that we think will do very well if Florida legalizes for adult-use is Planet 13 (PLNH), which just reported its first quarter that included VidaCann results. Since that mid-May piece, it has dropped less than Curaleaf, AYR Wellness and Verano, dropping 20.7%.

It’s not clear that Florida voters will approve adult-use legalization in November. If they don’t, we think the market will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and competitive. If they do, it’s not yet clear that the four largest operators will win going forward. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

Each week, Florida’s Office of Medical Marijuana Use (OMMU), which is part of the state’s Department of Health, releases data on the state’s medical cannabis program, including an active patient count, a qualified physician count, new approvals and an update for each dispensary. That data includes the number of dispensaries and the unit sales each week. This is the fourth New Cannabis Ventures article in what we expect will provide updates every month. We also published a newsletter about the state in May, suggesting that readers be careful with Florida. This article is based upon the update that was provided today as of 07/04. Readers who are interested in the  data going forward can visit the OMMU update page.

Patient Growth Is Slowing

We last updated on the Florida market a month ago, and the annual growth in patient count had fallen to 6.8% in early June from 8.4% in late May.  The rate is now at a record low of 5.8%:

At least the patient count is growing! It’s almost 882K and at a large 4% of the population. The post-pandemic population boom aided patient growth, and some program improvements have helped excite Florida residents. There has been an increase in dispensaries to 655 from 579 a year ago. This is an increase of 13.1%, which is faster than the medical cannabis patient growth has been.

Unit Growth Remains Strong

We recently shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.4% from a year earlier in April by the company’s estimate. This was a record low. BDSA released May and June data, and Florida’s growth picked up a bit, just over +5% from a year earlier for both months. Still, this is not really that rapid of growth.

The increased competition and falling prices combined with slightly increasing sales suggest that unit growth remains strong. In the most recent week, sales of medical cannabis product units with THC grew 15.4% from a year ago, while smokeable flower units expanded 13.3% from the week ending 7/06/23.

Conclusion

We warned readers on May 17th to be careful investing in MSOs that are big in Florida. The entire cannabis market has pulled back since then, and the entire group of MSOs is sharply lower. The four leaders in Florida have declined substantially:

The overall market, as measured by the NCV Global Cannabis Stock Index, has declined by 22.0% since then, and the NCV American Cannabis Operator Index has dropped 30.5%. Three of the Florida 4 have dropped by more than both of these.

It’s not clear that Florida voters will approve adult-use legalization in November. If they don’t, we think the market will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and competitive. If they do, it’s not yet clear that the four largest operators will win going forward. Investors should remain careful in our view with the big Florida operators.

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

You’re reading this week’s edition of the New Cannabis Ventures weekly newsletter, which we have been publishing since October 2015. The newsletter includes unique insight to help our readers stay ahead of the curve as well as links to the week’s most important news. We post this and all of the newsletters on our website here.

Friends,

Cannabis stocks are rallying hard in 2024. The New Cannabis Ventures Global Cannabis Stock Index is up by 33.5% so far. Of course, a major development is playing out: rescheduling. If cannabis is moved from Schedule 1 to Schedule 3, then 280E taxation will end, which will be very good for the American cannabis companies that have been paying it.

The American cannabis companies are doing well, but they aren’t the only part of the market firing forward. The NCV American Cannabis Operator Index has gained 35.1%, only slightly higher than the Global Cannabis Stock Index.  As we discussed last week, certain Canadian LPs that are in the GCSI are doing so much better than the index and the American operators. Cannabis investors should avoid certain Canadian LPs.

While rescheduling looks like it will take place, which should be good for the MSOs due to tax reduction and improved cash flow, we remind readers that there may be some things that will not be so positive. We have a fairly large exposure to MSOs in the model portfolio at 420 Investor. but we are avoiding some of the largest ones. The five Tier 1 names are up dramatically in 2024 and over the past year, especially Trulieve:

Each of these stocks has outperformed the Global Cannabis Stock Index, up 39.2%, over the past year. A year ago, Trulieve was very out of favor. Going back to the end of 2022, it is up a lot, but it is not the leader:

Since the end of 2022, the Global Cannabis Stock Index has gained 11.5%, so these large MSOs are all up by at least twice as much. The two leaders among the five largest MSOs are both big in Florida, which is a large medical-cannabis state that is vertically-integrated. Trulieve has 136 dispensaries, while Verano operates 75. The two of them have about 1/3 of the 635 open dispensaries in the state.

Investors have been very excited by the chances of the voters in Florida approving a ballot initiative in November that would allow adult-use legalization. The Supreme Court of Florida gave the go-ahead in early April, overruling a challenge. The MSOs in the state joined Trulieve in funding support for the amendment, which will require 60% of voters approving it to pass.

In addition to Trulieve and Verano, AYR Wellness and Curaleaf are big operators in the Florida medical cannabis market, with 125 stores between the two of them. The four of these, then, have 336 dispensaries in Florida, which is 53% of all dispensaries in the state. AYR Wellness, which is up 59.2% in 2024, has gained 139.2% since the end of 2022, ahead of the five largest MSOs.

We began writing about the Florida medical market recently. The state provides an update each week with unit volumes for all of its participants. Typically, these reports are released on Friday for the week ending on Thursday. The past report, though, was late to actually hit the website. Instead of last Friday, it was published on the OMMU website on Tuesday. The report showed a new all-time low in growth of patients, which expanded just 7.3% from a year ago. When we updated the BDSA data earlier this month, we shared that Florida revenue was up only 1.8% from a year earlier in March. This was a record low too.

It’s not clear that Florida voters will approve adult-use legalization in November. If they don’t, we think the market will not be happy with a mature medical market that is slowing and competitive. If they do, it’s not yet clear that the four largest operators will win going forward. Investors should be careful in our view with the big Florida operators.

New Cannabis Ventures publishes curated articles as well as exclusive news. Here is some of the most important content from this week:

Exclusives

Financial Reports

AYR Wellness Q1 Revenue Flat From a Year Ago

Cresco Labs Q1 Revenue Falls 5%

To get real-time updates download our free mobile app for Android or Apple devices, like our Facebook page, or follow Alan on Twitter. Share and discover industry news with like-minded people on the largest cannabis investor and entrepreneur group on LinkedIn.

Use the suite of professionally managed NCV Cannabis Stock Indices to monitor the performance of publicly-traded cannabis companies within the day or over longer time-frames. In addition to the comprehensive Global Cannabis Stock Index, we offer the Canadian Cannabis LP Index, the American Cannabis Operator Index and the Ancillary Cannabis Index.

View the Public Cannabis Company Revenue & Income Tracker, which ranks the top revenue producing cannabis stocks.

Stay on top of some of the most important communications from public companies by viewing upcoming cannabis investor earnings conference calls.

Discover upcoming new listings with the curated Cannabis Stock IPOs and New Issues Tracker.

Sincerely,

Alan

Based in Houston, Alan leverages his experience as founder of online community 420 Investor, the first and still largest due diligence platform focused on the publicly-traded stocks in the cannabis industry. With his extensive network in the cannabis community, Alan continues to find new ways to connect the industry and facilitate its sustainable growth. At New Cannabis Ventures, he is responsible for content development and strategic alliances. Before shifting his focus to the cannabis industry in early 2013, Alan, who began his career on Wall Street in 1986, worked as an independent research analyst following over two decades in research and portfolio management. A prolific writer, with over 650 articles published since 2007 at Seeking Alpha, where he has 70,000 followers, Alan is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and a frequent source to the media, including the NY Times, the Wall Street Journal, Fox Business, and Bloomberg TV. Contact Alan: Twitter | Facebook | LinkedIn | Email

The campaign to legalize cannabis in Florida is alive and well, as the state’s Supreme Court ruled earlier this month that voters will be able to decide the next chapter of cannabis reform on this year’s November ballot.

With an already bustling medical market, Florida’s potential move into the recreational cannabis space has been highly anticipated since the Sunshine State first moved to introduce medical reform in 2016. Cannabis businesses also have a hefty investment in the reform measure, with Trulieve contributing more than $40 million to the campaign, alongside an additional several million dollars from a handful of other medical cannabis treatment centers.

While the momentum ahead of Election Day feels significant, it’s possible that there may not be enough support to pass the measure under the state Constitution — at least when it comes to the results of a new poll.

The Latest Poll on Florida Adult-Use Cannabis Legalization

In Florida, measures must gain 60% support in order to pass. A new USA Today/Ipsos survey suggests that a majority of registered Florida voters, 56%, support the measure — along with 49% of Florida adults overall. Forty percent said that they would vote against it, and just 4% said that they were unsure.

Democrats and independents were most supportive of the measure (69% and 63%, respectively), while 39% of registered Republican voters  said they would vote in favor of the measure. The survey also found that support varied by region, with those in central Florida more likely to say they are in favor of recreational cannabis legalization than those in north or south Florida (54%, 49% and 38%, respectively).

While there are no differences in self-reported plans to vote for recreational cannabis legalization by gender or age, white Floridians were more likely than Hispanic Floridians to say they would vote in favor of recreational cannabis legalization later this year (55% vs. 32%, respectively).

The poll was conducted April 5-7 and included 369 Republicans, 264 Democrats and 316 independents.

Various Poll Results Point to Uncertain Outcomes

The poll is notable as the first to come out following the Florida Supreme Court’s decision to clear the measure for the ballot and reject the state attorney general’s constitutional challenge.

It’s also the most recent survey among a slew of similar recent efforts to gauge Floridian support of recreational cannabis, with varying results.

A November 2023 poll from the University of North Florida found that 67% of respondents said they would vote yes on a constitutional amendment to allow adults in Florida to purchase and possess small amounts of cannabis for personal use. It also notes that 70% of respondents supported recreational cannabis in Florida as of Spring 2023 along with 76% showing support in Spring 2022.

The most recent poll notably gave respondents the specifics of the proposed amendment, rather than simply asking if respondents supported or opposed legalization of recreational cannabis.

The measure, Amendment 3, would allow those over the age of 21 to possess up to three ounces of cannabis and five grams of cannabis concentrates. It would also allow existing medical cannabis dispensaries authorization to sell cannabis for adult use. The initiative is sponsored by Smart and Safe Florida.

The poll results represent some of the gaps Smart and Safe Florida must close to see legal recreational cannabis in Florida as the organization enters its next phase of outreach and education.

That said, Florida voters approved legal medical cannabis in 2016 with a vote of 71% to 29%. With more than six months until Election Day, it’s anyone’s guess how the cards will ultimately  fall.

Democratic strategists see opportunities to attract Florida voters to the party’s candidates now that constitutional amendment initiatives to legalize recreational marijuana and guarantee broader abortion rights have qualified for the ballot. The Florida Supreme Court announced on April 1 that Amendment 3 to legalize adult-use cannabis and Amendment 4 to protect abortion rights had fulfilled state requirements and would appear on the ballot for this fall’s presidential general election.

If passed, Amendment 3 would legalize cannabis for adults aged 21 and older and allow Florida’s existing licensed medical marijuana retailers to begin serving all adult consumers. Amendment 4 says that “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider,” with an exception for laws that require parental notification when minors get abortions. If passed, the amendment would effectively nullify a separate Supreme Court ruling issued last week that upheld the state’s 15-week limit on abortion and set the stage for approval of a six-week limit.

With 30 electoral votes, both the Republican and Democratic presidential campaigns eye Florida as a significant step on the path to victory in November. Democratic strategists see the addition of Amendment 3 and Amendment 4 to the November ballot as an opportunity to attract young voters, who tend to support abortion rights and cannabis policy reform.

“Both abortion and marijuana legalization are highly resonate with young people, which is a key demographic that the president has got to turn out,” Joseph Geevarghese, executive director of the grassroots progressive group Our Revolution, told The Hill. 

Biden Campaign Eyes Florida

On Monday, the Biden campaign released a memo indicating it would invest heavily in Trump’s home state of Florida, saying the policies of the former president and the Republican Party are “making Floridians’ lives worse.” Four years ago, Trump won the Sunshine State with 51% of the vote, while Biden took 48% of the vote.

Julie Chávez Rodríguez, the campaign manager for Biden’s reelection bid, said that the campaign is running ads in Florida targeting young voters and other demographic groups including Black and Hispanic voters. 

“Make no mistake: Florida is not an easy state to win, but it is a winnable one for President Biden, especially given Trump’s weak, cash-strapped campaign, and serious vulnerabilities within his coalition,” she said in the memo.

To win the state, the Biden campaign will have to have a strong showing from Democratic-leaning voting blocks including Black voters and young adults. Nikki Fried, chair of the Florida Democratic Party and an ally of the medical cannabis industry while serving as the state’s commissioner of agriculture, said she has already observed increased enthusiasm among young voters since the court rulings last week.

“Just based purely on watching social media in the last 24 hours, the youth vote is excited about the opportunity to be voting on cannabis and abortion in November,” she said.

Michael Starr Hopkins has experience running Democratic campaigns in Florida, serving as senior advisor for former Congressman Charlie Crist’s unsuccessful bid for governor of the state in 2022. As the country gears up for the November vote, the Democratic strategist sees the views of many Republicans as incompatible with those of most younger voters.

“Abortion and marijuana on the ballot could be an electoral earthquake for the youth vote in Florida. The GOP’s anti-choice, anti-cannabis stance isn’t just out of touch, it’s straight out of the stone age,” said Starr Hopkins. “Having these two hot-button issues front and center is going to turbocharge youth turnout, which is never a good thing for Republicans.”

Democrats See Success in Ohio and Alabama

Democrats see similarities between the situation developing in Florida this year with the 2023 race in Ohio. The ballot for that election included an initiative to legalize recreational marijuana and an amendment to enshrine the “fundamental right to reproductive freedom” with “reasonable limits” in the Ohio Constitution. Propelled in part by a strong turnout of young voters, both ballot measures passed, handing Republican party leaders two losses in one fell swoop.

In Alabama late last month, Democrat Marilyn Lands won a special election for a state House seat after leaning into abortion rights and protecting in vitro fertilization (IVF) as issues for her campaign. Only weeks before, the Alabama Supreme Court ruled that frozen human embryos are legally people, leading to a halt of IVF services in the state, at least temporarily.

“Ballot initiatives can be game changing for campaigns. Just last week we saw a Democrat win a state house seat in Alabama focused on IVF, showing the power of the issue in a deep red state,” said Democratic strategist Andrea Riccio, co-founder of Velocity Partners. “With recreational marijuana use and abortion access on the ballot, the Biden campaign has a real opportunity to activate young voters and turn Florida blue.”

Currently, Trump has a 0.8 percentage point lead over Biden overall, according to The Hill and Decision Desk HQ’s aggregation of polls. With weed and abortion on the ballot in Florida, however, Democrats believe they can overcome the deficit in the state, securing its 30 electoral votes for Biden.

“If the GOP keeps underestimating the power of pissed-off young people, they’re in for a rude awakening at the ballot box. Florida could slip from their grasp as cash-strapped Republicans struggle to counter the surge of energized young voters,” said Starr Hopkins. “It’s a perfect storm that could spell disaster for the GOP’s chances in the Sunshine State.”